Friday 26 June 2009

MJ

MJ – two letters are enough to bring the whole picture of the legend in one’s head. The ‘King of pop’ will not perform again in this world. He was scheduled to perform ‘50 comeback concerts’ in London O2 Arena from July 13, 2009 till March 6, 2010. It would have been single highest earning & most popular event in the music would, which now will never take place.

He was no doubt one of the most popular persons of all times. To some he was known for his heart thumping music, to some he was known for the all the controversy came under the title of child molestation, but the one reason he should be known & remembered forever is the message he tried to convey to the whole world for more than half of his 50 year life – Peace. He dedicated very large part of his work & a lot of time for the one noble cause – to make this world a better place for the next generation.

Yes, I do like the most popular singles of his viz. Thriller, Bad, Dangerous; but the ones I really venerate the legend for are The Earth Song, We are the world, Heal the world, Have you seen my childhood, Gone too soon – just to name a few. If you ever had any doubt about the greatness of the legendary artist or his message, I’d suggest you listen to the songs, even better just watch the videos. If you don’t have tears in your eyes after watching each one of these then you can doubt your humanity.

I really think it was curtains on the one of few angels of peace too soon. His work here was not done. He’s ‘Gone too soon’. Of course the Legend that was MJ will live on eternally through his singles but I still wonder, will he rise back from his tomb to complete his work like in ‘Thriller’ or will this day reverse to take us to the glorious past like ‘The Earth song’. For most of the world the news has still not sunk in to make the effect. Many of them are wishing for his soul to Rest In Peace. But there is one thing we really need to do so that he could really RIP – each one of us has to vow that we would do all it takes the to do what he preached for, to make the world a better place for the generations to come – ‘Heal the World’

May we always remember the eternal Legend of ‘King of pop’ for all the right reasons & may he keep doing his ‘Moonwalks’ in the heavens as he’d be doing in the hearts of his fans – amen!

Monday 22 June 2009

Disgusted by Investment Bankers

I am finance professional with aspiration to become a significant investment banker in the global market. So with the same motive I do keep a close watch on capital markets & respected Investment Bankers of India & world. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is considered to be Indian version of Warren Buffet & a highly respectable Investment Banker, or so I used to think before today.

The reason the title of the article reads the way it is is that I watched his interview on CNBC TV18 today. Refer this link to get a brief of what he said. I should make a disclosure before I say anything further, I Really used to adore him till today. But in this interview all he was doing is to show that he knows how to count & he knows the technical levels of Nifty. He uttered all possible numbers in the span of 10 minutes or so. Thank god he stopped short of saying that Nifty could see a level of 1500 or may be say 8000 this year.

He said one of the scenarios could be that Nifty hits 6100 or higher then comes back to 3300-3500 & consolidates for 3-4 years at that level. Again in another question to him, he said he is really sure about the GDP growth in India & we could see a double digit GDP growth number in coming years. So now can anyone tell me if he is so sure about economy, then how on earth the scenario he mentioned is possible? To hit double digit GDP growth numbers the Nifty constituents have to grow at least by 20% y-o-y, which justifies a P/E ratio for Nifty of about 20-22 at least. Nifty current earnings are about Rs. 210 for the FY08-09. There is no negative growth in earning of Nifty as a whole. So assume 5% growth on Nifty which is the most pessimistic figure I can come to as of now. This still gives earnings for Nifty of about Rs. 221 for FY09-10 & range for Nifty would be 4400-4800 going by the history. Remember this is my most pessimistic target! So how could you justify a double digit growth for GDP from now on & still reaching levels of 3300-3500 & consolidate there for 3-4 years. There is only one sane explanation for the prediction; India would need to go through one of the worst recessions since 1991. Then may the god help us!

The only conclusion I could reach after watching the interview is that either Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has no clue where the markets would be heading (which I think is highly unlikely) or he is just trying to fool the viewers in the bright sunshine. In both cases I sincerely feel he should not be appearing on TV & expressing his opinions. Because the all the Investment bankers on Wall Street have earned very bad name for themselves in the downfall of Investment Banking as we used to know, & he should not add to the bad reputation. This is really detrimental for the people like yours truly, who aspire to be an Investment Banker & I sincerely do no wish to stand in the line of a breed that becomes most despicable after the politicians of course. So my earnest requests to Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is either guide people to right direction or just say, “I have no clue where market is heading.” or “I would not like to tell you & lose my opportunity to make money from it.”

The end result is I have lost one of my most venerable deities to cheapest level of lying & obfuscating hapless investors who are already floundering in darkness.